I really feel with you long-term shareholders. I can understand those feelings. However, one major difference is that I didn't go through the pain of dilution over and over again. To me, there is no 'lost time' or 'lost opportunities' - yet.
It's all about risk/reward starting from today - not yesterday. I can only look at the 'status quo' and the potential for this stock when trying to look from here into the future.
Of course, the history tells us a lot about the future. How did the management do in the past? What mistakes were made? Did the team keep timelines? I appreciate that you guys provided me with enough insides and opinions about those days.
Based on my previous research and the announcements that followed I can only repeat myself that the company looks dead from the outside but there are some 'what ifs' that may turn the ship around. And here again comes the risk/reward ratio. I see many of those 'what ifs' as fairly realistic to achieve.
- I believe in the battery mega trend (this may lead to a shortage at some point - or a run towards mines beforehand) - Bass Metals resource is proven to be high quality and rare (large flakes - interesting carbon mix) - I believe in the major improvements for Stage 2 (new mining technique, screening, hydro power line - energy cost savings) - I believe the entire story can get a lot more political (countries securing supply chains - Urbix deal)
I am happy with what I have read so far. I am happy with the market cap when I invested. There remains the risk that the company runs out of money, but I do not think that key institutional shareholders will let this stock down at this point in time. And if they keep Bass alive, I might get dilated as well again and again but one day Bass Metals might be a profitable graphite large producer. 4 years seems a long time from here and now, but the share price will anticipate this. I don't think about 4 years. I am more thinking about 1-3 years.
There may be a black swan, or a pink swan (something amazing). The greatest thing is that we all don't know how this plays out. I think most of you guys are Australian. If I understand correctly there is also a trade-war going on between China and AUS. Those things really make me believe even stronger that if large-flakes are of critical importance, then one day we will be back in the spotlight.
If I would be in power of any western nation or institution we have to secure those resources. It is playing poker. Look how powerful those oil exporting countries became over the years? If we believe we will get away from Oil and go into batteries (and no alternative is invented) then we need so many more mines. And since the big powers need to secure their very own supply chain there will be unprecedented demand for high quality mines.
Bass Metals is sitting on a high quality large flake mine that is rare. Yes, in the next few years there may or may not be enough large flake for the entire world. But if I were in power I would start securing those mines now to be ready for the next decade. Any country that is cut off from those supply chains will pay a very high price both financially and politically. Western politics have IMO been a bit naive in the last decade. China has acted a lot smarter - thinking more long term.
The west needs to wake up. The EU and US did wake up last quarter when declaring an "emergency" for critical resources. This will eventually materialize when money is flowing into establishing saver supply chains. Bass Metals has something to offer. They do not need to run into production this year for the sake of being into production. They just need to stay alive because they are sitting on something that may be the next "oil". Of course I would also love to see them acting faster and producing graphite as soon as next year. But the Urbix Resources deal will be about politics. We don't know how far they are in the discussions and what is going on behind closed doors.
But we should keep an eye on Urbix, are they in talks with other big (western) graphite mines? If the Urbix deal falls through, are there other nations, companies or stake holders that have an interest to secure those large flakes? I believe Bass Metals will not be short of options - but first the time has to shift. The west needs to wake up. There should be enough large flake graphite anyways for the next 3-4 years. But what about after that?
To me it's all about the big picture and the risk-reward ratio. I don't ignore short term risks. But Bass Metals is well positioned with an amazing resource and with the potential to cut costs tremendously for stage 2.
Like @speculator555 said, if this would be an IPO people would look at Bass Metals a bit differently. But this may only delay a spike in SP because investors remain cautious (for good reason!). However, once time will shift and/or Bass delivers you can quote this post again.
(20min delay)