APX 55.8% 67.0¢ appen limited

People are not looking at this update in the right way - the...

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    People are not looking at this update in the right way - the underlying upgrade looks to be 7%+. In 2018 Appen and Figure 8 made a combined $65m EBITDA on a pro-forma basis, and their April guidance was implicictly $79-84m (after allowing for a net loss of $6m for Figure 8 at the EBITDA line). APX's updated guide is to $85-90m at a 0.74 fx rate, i.e, up 31-38% on a constant currency basis, and a 7% upgrade in constant currency. In addition the AUD/USD fx rate has fallen from 0.74 at which they base their guidance to 0.69 at time of writing, which would suggest a further 7%+ upgrade if you assume spot fx rates for the rest of the year (to say $92-97m). Also worth noting APX's historic conservatism in guidance early in the year....with very strong revenue growth year to date (revenue + committed work +63% to $270m, from $165m in pcp, which suggests c45-50% organic revenue growth) I'd suggest there is upside to their guidance.



 
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