Jarden’s note back in May, following the announcement, took into...

Jarden’s note back in May, following the announcement, took into account Mali CGT (which Leo and its advisors of course glossed over) and had us at:

• 33c net of CGT for the combined staged payments
• +6c disclosed cash on hand
• -2c head office costs (but presumably not including most recent executive greed or directors’ self-reward that is perhaps still to come?)
• +6c gross future royalty revenue over 20 years

= 43c per share if all payments plus future royalties are received. Looks to me like their early valuation analysis is shaping up.



If we traded tomorrow I think a (still highly sceptical) market will be quick to disregard royalty payments until we see them due to ongoing sovereign risk (nobody is going to trust Mali, and from Nov onwards we have no oversight of Goulamina other than what Ganfeng chooses to tell us), and the market may even hesitate a little over the second tranche until it is received from Ganfeng and banked in cold hard cash (which is not until midway through next year).