NVA 3.70% 28.0¢ nova minerals limited

The macro environment is unsettled, and small caps are feeling...

  1. 356 Posts.
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    The macro environment is unsettled, and small caps are feeling the brunt. Nova sentiment was already at another low point following the MRE, even though the SS2 metrics in many ways surprised to the upside (imo), particularly payback & IRR. But our SP has not recovered. Add into this the tax-loss selling (sell in May & go away), and here we are. I also think the slip in timeline to 2028, until clarified based on access road progress, will have spooked investors (but this may have already been inferred by the sophisticated money, based on the Susitna Road press coverage).

    Do I believe the fundamental value drivers have changed? No. Do I believe that, based on the SS2 metrics & potential yet uncovered, we will see the gold here extracted economically in the future? Yes, I do. I agree with the idea that we're about to see a strong gold movement to the upside & a bull market continuation, particularly with the backdrop of global risk & crypto weakness. I have positioned my portfolio with this in mind, with Nova & NCM being two of my largest holdings (spec & blue chip, for measure). And I believe NVA to be significantly undervalued - USGO is a very relevant comparison, I am sure our management team here are in discussions regarding a US listing (bare in mind there is cost & risk involved, not to mention extensive work, but it would be on the table). Even if this project is significantly overhyped, it is still yards ahead of NVA (and NVA is more advanced in many ways).

    I personally don't like the idea of a share buyback, whilst I would love to see the SP increase/hold steady, for the patient this is just noise. Using up the cash balance at this stage (or potentially foregoing growth at Snow Lake by selling our equity), with such a long runway of drilling & expenditure for PFS etc., this would put us at risk (the last thing we need is further dilution). I'd rather the business continue what they're doing, with haste, and give the market some good news in the form of high-grade drill hits & improved feasibility. I also hope we see the entry of a cornerstone investor of scale & relevance, or some kind of creative partnership or funding/off-take agreement. Looking at BEZ, this is certainly possible for the right project.

    None of us here are happy to see a price at 30c, but for those with cash on the sidelines, a strong belief in the fundamentals, an understanding of the market environment, and an appetite for risk... this could be an excellent opportunity (DYOR, AIMO). I've been buying all the way down, and like anyone I'd love to turn time back and save all of my capital to buy now. But I'll personally take the opportunity to DCA once we see the price action at 30c (technically it's possible for us to drop below & see a quick drop to the 20's, ridiculous fundamentally but it could happen). If we bounce strongly, I'll also see this as a strong signal.

    Finally, I am reminded of my favourite quote, 'the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient'. I'm lucky that my circumstances and income allow me to be patient here, and DCA to take advantage of (what I see as) the inevitable re-rate to fair value. Good luck to all, I have been a consistent bull for Nova & perhaps this is to my detriment, but I continue to like what I see and am excited to look back in 3 years at the growth here (hopefully marking green on the decision scorecard). Cheers.
 
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Last
28.0¢
Change
0.010(3.70%)
Mkt cap ! $59.63M
Open High Low Value Volume
28.0¢ 28.0¢ 28.0¢ $6K 21.42K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 2000 27.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
28.0¢ 4233 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
Last
28.0¢
  Change
0.010 ( 0.00 %)
Open High Low Volume
27.0¢ 28.0¢ 27.0¢ 5170
Last updated 11.32am 03/05/2024 ?
NVA (ASX) Chart
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