Morning all, like many on this board, i feel very disappointed with this turn of events. I strongly believe that we were well on the way to a multi billion dollar energy powerhoues. Maybe we still get there, but the for sale sign appears to be up.
Stuart Nicholls was by far the best CEO of any ASX company I have been involved in. I was lucky to be at his first presentation at the Cottesloe Hotel. I also remember Tim Goyder was in the audiance and he had a smile from ear to ear. I imagine he had played a role in getting SN to STX. That night, Stuart wowed the audiance with his breadth of knowledge, in everything oil and gas, from the way the Perth Basin was formed (via the Indian sub-continent) to how current day oil and gas projects were funded.
I was also lucky enoungh to hear his insights at several AGMs, some of which I posted on HC. I have owned STX shares since the pre-Texas days and have seen my original investment fall to next to zero, to a substatial sum (unfortunately I did buy too many at 40c before the debacle, but also bounght more at 19c recently). So, whilst my investment is only marginally up at the current price, I would have been wiped out with the SN-led recovery.
SN and team brought the company back from the dead. So, yes I am a true-blue unabashed fan boy.
So what is the company worth today? I will throw my two-bob's worth in:
- 30c and $840m
I cannot see us getting less than 30c for the company. Even a basic 30% premium on Friday's closing price gets us pretty much there. It totally ignores the changing dynamics around gas and electricity and how our assets have improved since the WGO transaction, eg Peaking Plant, ED, gas prices higher, new discoveries, overeseas capability, recent transactions etc.
2. 40c and $1.12bn
This is where we might sit today. If I recall correctly, uncle Nev bought several million shares around 36c and Macquarie has options at around 35c, These are not issues to be ignored. Both would turn a profit at this price. The abovementiond changes in the gas scene, Beach and Japan's need for gas and our progress really do bring this price into view,
3. 50c and $1.4bn
Whilst this may seem a bit of a stretch and wishfull thinking..........,,just maybe...........? It is only really around the equivalent that Gina paid for Min Res gas, and we are not in a fire sale. At $9 per GJ in WA and $18 per GJ for LNG, it is not that much of a stretch, STX's discovered gas, with a likley large increase in reserves coming our way via WE/LD, is worth BILLIONS. So, someone may consider $1.4bn cheap (not Atlas cheap, but cheap, non-the-less).
So, I will keep wishful thinking.
Where to from here? This is where our BOD needs to prove its worth. If someone has been artificailly keeping our share price low, that person will most likely be ready to bid almost immediately. Possibly Beach will get the process rolling and try to pinch us with a script bid while no one else is looking. They may hope that Gina is happy with what she has got already. I hope this is the way we go, if we are to sell, Then, if Gina wants to cement her own legacy, what better way to do it than by creating a power behemoth in in her own backyard?
I still prefer STX to go it alone, but if a sale is to happen, bring it on!
(20min delay)