MIN aren't abandoning any ship, what gave you that idea? MIN want to run Dome Nth ore through Mt Marion, but as cheaply as they can get it. That was always my investment thesis in the first place. The analogy is too small to make sense developing gold deposits large plants have pick-up as satellite DSO operations. Been happening for years in WA and makes a lot of sense when considering the capex to be saved and shared as a satellite operation compared to replicating a smaller, higher cost new plant with a lot of capex to 'go-it-alone'...
In the case of ESS, there is ~$250M capex saved plus considerable opex through a much larger, economies of scale Mt Marion plant. MIN has to consider the cost to buy Dome Nth ore form ESS (one way or another) plus the time cost to when they actually process Dome ore. If they don't need Dome for a while (because they have their own ore for free) why over-pay or pay early if they don;t have to? Eventually they will have to, and probably they will lock it down at the right price before they have to. They certainly don;t want TLEA to lock it away from them, because at 50c to ESS it is a great bolt on satellite deposit.
Risk is the issue. Risk TLEA don't compete for it, so MIN have a free hand to play with it, wait for it, and eventually get control of that satellite feed cheaply. Nobody is in the habit of paying more than they have to for anything. Sellers don;t like the thought of riding this down to 35c if TLEA do a dog-act walk and leave ESS hanging, while MIN also leaves ESS hanging. Buyers like the odds TLEA and/or MIN try to wrap this up with a higher offer shortly. Time will tell.
I'm kicking myself again for not selling it all and buying it back cheaper after the vote failed (which it always was after MIN took 20% last week). That much was logical regardless if TLEA come back with a higher offer or whatever, but idle hands are the devil's tools .
GLTAH
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