As you identify the big risk is that TLEA do not come back with...

As you identify the big risk is that TLEA do not come back with a higher bid.

Another possibility is MIN and TLEA do a deal between themselves (which I think is less of a possibility).

The one thing I am sure of is that if TLEA decide not to increase their offer MIN will try to acquire ESS as cheaply as possible.

I would anticipate 55/60c to be their range if they move straight away if TLEA are out of the picture. Another option if TLEA walk away is for MIN to sit for a while, the SP falls a bit (presumably it would be supported somewhat by the fact that MIN are now a substantial SH and there would be an expectation they would do something at some stage) and they come back after a period at around 50/55c and see what they can pick from frustrated SH.

Lots of possibilities as to how this will play out - the best possible scenario for shareholders is a bidding "war" between TLEA and MIN.