The US market numbers are directly from company presentations & reports. I'm sure you've read them.
The 75 million is using a stable long term PE of 12.7, approximately what a rational investor would pay for a no-growth company. Meaning from now CUV must grow H1 annualised earnings by
937% (8m to 75m) & then earn this 75m profit indefinitely. Putting it another way they must grow at
40% pa for 7 years, from 8m will get them to 75m. I ask you, can you reliably predict this?
You say it's about expansion & the 'pipeline'. Their pipeline is mostly exactly what they already sell,
1) Scenesse in EPP patients, the one with an addressable US market of c.500 people.
2) The vitiligo in my eyes is an obvious success, but you never know. Awkward thing is
Vitiligo is not a clinical issue so insurance & governments will almost certainly not fund it. They are already having trouble with EPP payments & that's a serious medical condition.
3) Variegate porphyria acts very differently to Vitiligo & EPP, so efficacy is quite unknown. Plus it's in very early stages & I'd say at best a loose chance, can't value it in any significant way just yet. Note
Phase 2 trials to approvals are typically a 15-35% success rate, see below.
4) Pre-clinical can't be valued at all. Exceptionally long lead times, exceptionally low success rates. I would hazard a guess at less that 5% chance each, see below;
We know the chance of success from
Ph1 to Approval is sub 30% for pretty much all fields & as low as 10%. Refer to
https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524
Perhaps you should be more critical when selecting who deserves your capital. See my above point about 40% pa for 7 year being barely enough... for a share price $2 cheaper than current.
You say the Australian market, lets assume the same incidence rate & addressable market as the US, at 25 mil population there's c.180 people @ 20%
that is only 36 people. In Japan it's 180 people. Tell me you get that? Right.
See my above Variegate Porphyria comment.You said '$40 is just around the corner' when the price was sub $22. Is that a real fact? Can I bank on it?
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