Current annual revenue is ~$25M, with more than double-digit growth. If growth stalls and European sales cap out at $30M annually, and the US market only gets to $20M annually (2/3rd of Europe), that's about $25M annual profit at current 50% margin, with a current P/E of 54x. That's without any contribution from potential Australia and Japanese market and the paediatric market. Expensive, but not insane (NAN is trading about 130x,
If growth slows to 10% p.a., then in 5 years time Europe would be ~$40M revenues and if the US hits 2/3rd of that would be $25. Assuming a notional $5M from Australia and Japan and $10M from paediatrics puts it at $80M, $40M annual profit with a P/E of 33x (CSL trades at 34x)
So a reasonably conservative assumption puts it at a P/E in line with CSL in 5 years (assuming no share price growth until then). If CUV is able to keep their current rate of growth for even 1 or 2 more years before it slows, if they can get in to the paediatric market, variegate porphyria, an vitiglio, then the current SP will look cheap.
It's a gamble on continued growth (and primarily on FDA approval), but unless you're investing in Pfizer, just about every biotech stock is a gamble on growth.
Personally I think CUV is a little pricey, given the risk to the growth assumptions, but far from "no basis in reality" given that even conservative assumptions price it in line with other ASX biotech stocks.
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Last
$14.05 |
Change
0.340(2.48%) |
Mkt cap ! $703.5M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$13.90 | $14.20 | $13.71 | $727.8K | 51.88K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 167 | $13.98 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$14.06 | 789 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 900 | 13.920 |
1 | 15000 | 13.780 |
1 | 833 | 13.750 |
1 | 350 | 13.710 |
1 | 70 | 13.700 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.060 | 789 | 1 |
14.110 | 278 | 1 |
14.240 | 740 | 1 |
14.250 | 500 | 1 |
14.440 | 100 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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