CUV 2.48% $14.05 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

Current annual revenue is ~$25M, with more than double-digit...

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    Current annual revenue is ~$25M, with more than double-digit growth. If growth stalls and European sales cap out at $30M annually, and the US market only gets to $20M annually (2/3rd of Europe), that's about $25M annual profit at current 50% margin, with a current P/E of 54x. That's without any contribution from potential Australia and Japanese market and the paediatric market. Expensive, but not insane (NAN is trading about 130x,

    If growth slows to 10% p.a., then in 5 years time Europe would be ~$40M revenues and if the US hits 2/3rd of that would be $25. Assuming a notional $5M from Australia and Japan and $10M from paediatrics puts it at $80M, $40M annual profit with a P/E of 33x (CSL trades at 34x)

    So a reasonably conservative assumption puts it at a P/E in line with CSL in 5 years (assuming no share price growth until then). If CUV is able to keep their current rate of growth for even 1 or 2 more years before it slows, if they can get in to the paediatric market, variegate porphyria, an vitiglio, then the current SP will look cheap.

    It's a gamble on continued growth (and primarily on FDA approval), but unless you're investing in Pfizer, just about every biotech stock is a gamble on growth.

    Personally I think CUV is a little pricey, given the risk to the growth assumptions, but far from "no basis in reality" given that even conservative assumptions price it in line with other ASX biotech stocks.


 
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$14.05
Change
0.340(2.48%)
Mkt cap ! $703.5M
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$13.90 $14.20 $13.71 $727.8K 51.88K

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1 167 $13.98
 

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$14.06 789 1
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