Hi allI went into AVX with a view of if this coal mine a good...

Hi all
I went into AVX with a view of if this coal mine a good deal after some research and can’t beat them join them, open minded to a view that if it’s good I will park some cash here.
This is what I have found so far and doesn’t mean buy or sell your shares or do I think that you should take my word do your research and you can make your own mind up whether it’s good for you. The coal seam coal is the lowest grade for coking Google what the difference between coking coal and thermal coal there are disclaimers about the seam coal on most sites.
The mine had free labour up to 1850 and then started paying for labar then lasted 7 years before closing as it couldn’t make money. Then reopened just before the 2nd world war and closed in 1957 again couldn’t make money
Bearing in mind it’s an underground mine the COGS are higher and 1 fire will close it down and its had 1 before killed 33 bring as to Sunrise Inc. reopened the mine early 2000 and had an ongoing contract to a local electrical supplier which tried to get a new contract in 2006 at a better price per ton it failed and close down as it had no one to sell its coal to. Now this is the passed and things change.
So wear to now the price of gas which in the US is very low electrical supplier in the US can switch at any time between coal and gas and not taking into account the green side of things. So the company has to try and get an electrical supplier to switch back to coal so that would mean on today’s prices gas would have to go up by 100% or more get them back to coal even then it still might cheaper to use gas. So now that you can rule out selling to a local electrical supplier It means going the open market (and the spot price is down 33% y on y and falling) adds to the price of COGS which will be less profits this shouldn’t matter but what does matter is there numbers and working on this they have 10m tons 15 year mine life with little plant equipment means that they will have to get someone to mine it for them or start paying for plant which with no contract will kill them trying to raise capital see COK price drop on a view of raising funds and they have contracts.
The only part of this deal that makes any sense is the 6% interest however that is not special they could do better than that if they put their money in Telstra with a lot less risk. The Risk they have with the 6% now is that the mine fails again and loses the lot. Brings me back to a mine that has 15 year life why would it have failed every time and with those numbers why wouldn’t someone opened it to the spot price before now to get a contract again? this is part of my research and I could be wrong it could be the best deal in the world and I hope it is for the shareholders. But please don’t take my word do some research and draw your own opinion but I am not buying this story and will wait to see it unfold or die trying to do a too good to be true deal
Cheers and good luck all Russell