Ann: Chairman's Address to AGM, page-3

I have not listened to either CEO or chairman presentation, but will, I have read them and thought about them. Let's start with Slide 10. They made 6142 T of NdPr in 2023. Original name plate was 6KT Next is 7.2KT So barely over name plate. Now they did have a major water problem in Q1 but this was for only a month. With restart time let's say 6 weeks which I think is high. 6.14 / 52 =11.5%, Multiplying X 1.115 = 6.848 T still short of 7.2 KT.

When NEXT was launched AL told us first how they reached NEXT rates for a Full week then in next Q cc how they did it for a month. Now 3~4 years later they still have not done it reliably. Yes there have been problems. In industry the executive always builds contingencies in. Either in Physical plant or their estimates Apparently Lynas does not do this, so every hiccup becomes a shortfall in predictions. This is why I say I want to see real production increases before I invest in what company says.

Next lets Add slide 13 to the above. I have been saying that Lynas Output was about 10 % of WW production. Others have been saying more. I look at chart and assume that worldwide demand is about 95KT 6.142 / 95= 6.5%. Now AL says "Growth expected to accelerate until 2030' This is good news because it is needed to raise prices. Unfortunately, the growth needed for higher prices will likely Mean Lynas market share will go down.
When I took Economics the guideline was that market share of 10~20% put you in control of your destiny. Unfortunately that was based on there being a half to a dozen competitors. Lynas has one, China Inc. When Lynas has even 10% market share and China controls 80% they have little control over their future.

AL was very happy as were many on this board when Lynas made 1864 T in Q4. For me to be realy excited they needed to maintain this at least at 1700T in Q1 to show they were at Next rates. The truth was reveled in Q1 when production was 1526T. JMO this clearly shows with cramming overtime and emptying the pipe they can do NEXT rates. The Q1 numbers say when these things are not done when the pipe has to be refilled steady state duction is about 6500T a Q and this is why I say show me before I believe. I have been fooled several times by Lynas predictions Like AU $ 500M total for all the 2019 projects, KAL is now over 700 M! They are out to mislead. In several places they say sales are continually increasing. This is true if you focus on Tons. Revenue is what is important Revenue is Volume time Price and that has been dropping. about 60% since Q3 2022. JMO but Q4 drop will be much lower because of plant shut down and lower prices. Revenue has dropped mor than SP and Q2 revenue will be lower still is anyone other than me worried about SP catching up? What will be the impact if SAR shows RED for profits.






1864T