Originally posted by zwu
In the FY2018 Results Presentation (17/8/2018) and in this present "Chairman's Address to Shareholders" actually contains a same
profit warning, which has been largely ignored by the market so far.
In page 16 or page 18 of the above documents under the title "FY19 Outlook", it says –
”Total operating revenue ... is expected to be slightly below FY18 ...
"our expense base is expected remain consistent with FY18 ...
”The effective tax rate is anticipated to be approximately 24% ..." (Tax rate was ~22% for HY18 according to CommSec Research)
So the HY19 earnings must be lower than FY18’s and the growth rates must be negative, but its present trailing PE is nearly 23x, so you know what would have to happen next to its share price...
@zwu can you point out exactly where the term 'profit warning' appears in the presentation, or are these just your own words?
It's a shame you only quote part of a sentence in your post "our expense base is expected to remain consistent with FY18..." as I believe this to be quite misleading. The sentence goes on to say, "...as we continue to invest in our global platform to support expected future growth."
Good management, in any company, is worth its weight in gold. Hansen's management have proven to be honest and deliver on their promises. They have acknowledged that in this industry growth will not so much be organic but rather through acquisition. They have cherry-picked 9 good acquisitions in the last 10 years, (their most recent also their largest
) consistently paid dividends in that time, kept debt to a minimum level and have built up significant funding capacity for further growth. There will be further acquisitions, but they won't make them in haste. I wouldn't be surprised if they are in negotiations now but we wouldn't know because the company treats 'in confidence' discussions, in confidence. If you whittle down your evaluation of the company to trailing earnings, you're missing a very large part of the picture.
(20min delay)