Very happy to have this picked apart, but a crack at looking at...

Very happy to have this picked apart, but a crack at looking at what cash might be generated over the next 10 years, considering the hedging, and taking mid ranges of guidances. This shows that there is unlikely to be much of a dividend for a little while as we need to build the cash to pay off the tropicana debt (unless refi) and pay for McPhillamys. However, in the medium term, there will be significant growth and no reason we can't see a div up to 50cps . I will let you calculate a share price on a yield basis of 5%

			FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36
1	oz	Existing	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000	370,000
2	oz	Tropicana	130,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	144,000	0
3	oz	McPhillamies	0	0	0	0	192,000	192,000	192,000	192,000	192,000	192,000	192,000	192,000	192,000
4	oz	Other											400,000	400,000	600,000	600,000	750,000
5	oz	Total	500,000	514,000	514,000	514,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	736,000	736,000	936,000	744,000	750,000
6
7	oz	Hedged Volume	100,000	100,000	120,000
8	$/oz	Hedged Price	1,571	1,571	1,571
9	$	Hedged Revenue	157,100,000	157,100,000	188,520,000
10
11	oz	Volume sold at market	400,000	414,000	394,000	514,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	706,000	736,000	736,000	936,000	744,000	750,000
12	$AUD/oz	Market Price	2,544	2,608	2,673	2,740	2,808	2,878	2,950	3,024	3,100	3,177	3,257	3,338	3,421	3,507	3,595
13	$AUD	Market Revenue	1,017,600,000	1,079,546,400	1,053,079,260	1,408,159,412	1,982,518,596	2,032,081,560	2,082,883,599	2,134,955,689	2,188,329,582	2,243,037,821	2,396,809,819	2,456,730,065	3,202,427,750	2,609,157,481	2,695,954,050
14
15		Total Revenue	1,174,700,000	1,236,646,400	1,241,599,260	1,408,159,412	1,982,518,596	2,032,081,560	2,082,883,599	2,134,955,689	2,188,329,582	2,243,037,821	2,396,809,819	2,456,730,065	3,202,427,750	2,609,157,481	2,695,954,050
16
17	$/oz	AISC Existing poz	1,360	1,394	1,429	1,465	1,501	1,539	1,577	1,617	1,657	1,698	1,741	1,784	1,829	1,875	1,922
18	$/oz	AISC Tropicana poz	1,170	1,199	1,229	1,260	1,291	1,324	1,357	1,391	1,426	1,461	1,498	1,535	1,574	1,613	1,653
19	$/oz	AISC McPhillamys	1,300	1,333	1,366	1,400	1,435	1,471	1,508	1,545	1,584	1,624	1,664	1,706	1,748	1,792	1,837
20	$/oz	AISC Other	1,300	1,333	1,366	1,400	1,435	1,471	1,508	1,545	1,584	1,624	1,664	1,706	1,748	1,792	1,837
21	$AUD	Total Costs	655,300,000	688,472,000	705,683,800	723,325,895	1,016,920,740	1,042,343,758	1,068,402,352	1,095,112,411	1,122,490,221	1,150,552,477	1,200,821,709	1,230,842,252	1,611,284,403	1,307,490,156	1,377,649,475
22
23		EBITDA	519,400,000	548,174,400	535,915,460	684,833,517	965,597,856	989,737,802	1,014,481,247	1,039,843,278	1,065,839,360	1,092,485,344	1,195,988,110	1,225,887,813	1,591,143,348	1,301,667,325	1,318,304,575
24
25	$AUD	Tax	155,820,000	164,452,320	160,774,638	205,450,055	289,679,357	296,921,341	304,344,374	311,952,984	319,751,808	327,745,603	358,796,433	367,766,344	477,343,004	390,500,198	395,491,372
26
27	$AUD	Debt Repayment			330,000,000
28
29	$AUD	Additional Development Capex	165,000,000	169,125,000	169,125,000	373,353,125	169,125,000	173,353,125	177,686,953	182,129,127	186,682,355	191,349,414	196,133,149	201,036,478	206,062,390	211,213,950	216,494,299
30
31	$AUD	Cashflow for investment and dividend	198,580,000	214,597,080	-123,984,178	-43,969,663	506,793,499	519,463,336	532,449,920	545,761,168	559,405,197	573,390,327	641,058,528	657,084,991	907,737,953	699,953,178	706,318,904
32
33
34
35	$AUD	Shares outstanding	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911	754,020,911
36
37	$/share	FCF per share	0.26	0.28	-0.16	-0.06	0.67	0.69	0.71	0.72	0.74	0.76	0.85	0.87	1.20	0.93	0.94
38
39	%	Payout of cash avaible for equity	0%	0%	0%	0%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%	75%
40
41	$/share	Dividend per share	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.52	0.53	0.54	0.56	0.57	0.64	0.65	0.90	0.70	0.70
42
43	$AUD	Cash available for reinvestment	198,580,000	413,177,080	289,192,902	245,223,239	371,921,613	501,787,447	634,899,927	771,340,219	911,191,519	1,054,539,100	1,214,803,732	1,379,074,980	1,606,009,468	1,780,997,763	1,957,577,489