Yep, I agree 100%.
I think the things that people need to be aware of are as to why these games are being played, and the stakes on offer.
This is not even a long game, 3 years is a short / medium term game...
Hedges - Not due to the current board these were put in place by the previous mob. Although "they get more expensive as the gold goes up", we have a clear roadmap for how they will be paid down.
Once they are paid down, we will have at least 100,000 ounces extra profit per year.
At todays rate of $2,500 per ounce (which of course could be much higher in 3 years) is an extra $250,000,000m.
Or with 750m shares on issue, we are talking about $0.30 cents per share. PURE PROFIT.
McPs - Again as you said, this was a legacy long before this board and directors.
Using the formula above, an extra 150,000 oz of gold (although they are saying 200,000 oz pa) will represent about $0.45 cents per share PURE PROFIT. Of course the DFS and AISC may impact that, but they are not insignificant numbers.
As I stated in previous posts, the company said in the Diggers and Dealers presentation that the costs for development were coming back higher than the company were expecting, and this was partially attributable to significantly higher Iron Ore and Steel prices.
Both have come down significantly since then, with steel about 1/3 cheaper than it was, and the company should at least be partially hedging the cost of steel as it is back down to normal pricing longer term - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel
This hedge would have minimal impact if the steel price was to go down another 20%, but it would have a more significant impact if it was to up up another 50%.
A Buy Back - Given we are the worst performing of our peers by a very long way, it also means we represent the best value of our peers, given there are no surprises that could come up.
We should effectively acquire ourselves.
As I said, we can always raise at a much higher price in the future.
A buy back would also put a squeeze the shorts which are on the rise, and almost everyone loves to see them sweat a little.
If it was my company, I would do the following:
- $100m buy back @ $2 floor. Dividends would take a hit, but as mentioned, the SP declines are self fulfilling at the moment. Personally (and my circumstances are different to retirees and the like) I don't care about a $0.07c dividend when my net worth has dropped $10,000's or $100,000's
- Put the drill in the ground to deliver an extra 1.5m to 3m JORC ounces at Duketon which would mean a mine life extension of 5 to 10 years at 300k oz production rate.
- Mandate all Board and Senior management put 15% of their salary into the company via on market purchases
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- ASX - By Stock
- RRL
- Ann: Chairman's Address to Shareholders
Ann: Chairman's Address to Shareholders, page-61
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