Hey mate,
SP predictions are obviously tricky.
Many eyes on this stock at the moment, but I agree with your sentiments.
Most don’t seem to want to take a punt during the speculative portion, probably because most of the activities are quite boring.
Investors clearly want to see funding (and that would include instos).
@J L you clearly went to a lot of effort with that last post mate, and some very key points/concerns. Great stuff.
Now with the pre-FID funding, this would obviously include working capital to pay staff etc. They would then likely need to consider the possibility of full project funding being delayed, thus delaying FID too.
FID (which is essentially a board meeting) needs to occur to proceed with whatever finance mechanism they opt with, in terms of the $2.6B odd. It’s a formality, but it isn’t a reality until it’s signed off on by all parties at the end of the day.
I would assume that the FID will occur almost immediately after the funding is sorted, pending it’s after the BFS obviously (which makes sense).
Now, I’ve guesstimated that around $50-$100M is required for the first funding package in total, but let’s just assume it’s $75M.
One would hope this is done in one fell swoop, to ensure the FEED and ultimately BFS can be completed in a timely manner.
Yep, agree completely with comments re: timelines.
They mentioned that they don’t expect any delays with the Q1 23 activities, but everyone would be fairly justified in being cautious and somewhat pessimistic… until proven otherwise (given history).
Since they’ve only opted to tie up 500ktpa in offtake, I think that once the BFS is completed (much of it would already be completed - the IBFS is what Daelim would have been privy to prior to signing the binding offtake… so really just waiting for FEED etc) … I would assume that the full finance package would be somewhat more straight forward.
The pre-FID funding is going to be the big question mark, particularly with current funds quite low and rapidly depleting, and no BFS … it’s not a position of strength.
If delays occur, then sure, they could do another CR and raise $5M+ to tie things over. But this will then likely push back the timelines even further.
So in an ideal world :
- Con notes for the pre-FID funding. It wouldn't surprise me if the SP then went back above 15-20cents.
- BFS completed and announced to market Jan/Feb 23. This would hopefully give the SP at least some strength on the BUY side to keep the price up, maybe even a push a little further north.
- Full project funding 100% debt and pay off con notes + the interest Feb/Mar 23. If they keep dilution minimal, this would likely give the SP a good kick north.
FID may trigger insto buying, pending the above actually occurring and being signed off on.
But at the end of the day, who knows.
We've all seen FOMO and absurd MC valuations on spec stocks with much much less.
Heck, the stock could run to 50c tomorrow on no news (wishful thinking).
Such is the joy of the ASX spec sector.
Gonna be a wild few weeks/months though.
I would love to see a $500M + MC within the next quarter.
All IMO, DYOR etc etc.
Cheyne
(20min delay)