PSC

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8.5¢ prospect resources limited

Yep... I figured it was probably an options issue accounting for...

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Growler74

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28/02/22

16:28

Post #: 59876993
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Originally posted by LittleArt: ↑

Growler,

Really appreciate your efforts here. A few quick points.

I think you have to use a shares on issue (SOI) of 468,273,535 as it is a safe bet the 39,750,000 options will be converted.

Provided the sale goes ahead, and it is practically certain after yesterday's announcement it will, you can be comfortably assured the dividend/buyback payment will be 92c to 96c even with the higher SOI - indeed PSC announced the 92 to 96c estimated return based on the higher SOI.

I am not willing to estimate how much PSC 2.0 will be worth, as too many details remain unknown, but your $1.03 to $1.06 estimate looks reasonable to me right now.

The one proviso is the AUD/USD exchange rate on the date of transaction (I presume PSC will move the US dollars they are paid into Australian dollars quickly). PSC has used a AUD/USD estimate of .715c, so we should be barracking for a lower rate on the day of the payment. A worry here is the AUD is looking strong right now (see chart below).

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Let's assume the AUD/USD exchange rate increases by 10% from .715c to .7865c. Then the USD 377.8m payment for the Arcadia Lithium Project is worth $480m AUD rather than $528m. This could threaten the payout range. Even then PSC could adjust the monies going to PSC 2.0 to keep the 92-96c range in sight. Of course this would reduce the value of PSC 2.0.

So long as the AUD does not boom in the next month I remain confident the PSC share price will continue to slowly grind higher from 90c. This would suggest most shareholders would do well to hold for now and at least until near the record date of the upcoming dividend/buy back payment (probably around 30 June 2022). At that point, armed with all the tax and other information, shareholders can plan their next step.

Expand

Yep... I figured it was probably an options issue accounting for the discrepancy in SOI but didn't have time to look into it in great detail. That's why I was happy to use the 92c-96c guidance from the announcement without trying too hard to second guess it.

Certainly, I'm confident that with the payout being in the range of 92c-96c + whatever PSC v2 is going to be worth, and the amount of time we have until end of FY, there is certainly a gain to be made from todays 85c.

Cheers mate.

PSC Price at posting: 84.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 8.5¢		Change 0.005(6.25%)		Mkt cap ! $48.44M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
8.7¢	8.7¢	8.0¢	$40.50K	479.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	12000	8.1¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.5¢	5881	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	12000	0.081
2	28132	0.080
2	44739	0.079
1	200000	0.076
5	306816	0.075

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.085	5881	1
0.087	183281	1
0.089	81727	2
0.090	3000	1
0.098	56357	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 01/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

PSC (ASX) Chart

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Yep... I figured it was probably an options issue accounting for...

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