Firstly, good to see a nice bounce in POS over the last 12 hours. Hopefully it holds.
Starting to think the hedge closeout was one of the best moves we've seen from AYN to date.
Anyway, trying to get a handle on whether this rights offer is worth taking up.
Roughly 1.5B shares issued currently. 3 for 2 will take this up to 3.7B, plus the 750M options. If the new shares can trade at the issued price, we're talking MC of $22.4M, compared to the $18M based on the last sale.
Any life support left for poor AYNO will be well and truly pulled with this dilution. To strike, we would need a MC of $270M. (assuming 750M of the new options priced in). At a P/E of 10, that would imply $27M earnings. At 1.2M oz per year, that's almost $23/oz of pure profit. And to make any profit SP needs to be ahead of strike price. I think POS would have to be well and truly north of $50 AUD to make that happen. With only 52M on issue, at last sale they're only worth $104k in total anyway. We may well see the whole lot dumped on the .001 sell queue when trading re opens. Buyers will be scarce.
If we price AYN at the $14M raised (assuming any cash on hand left plus the $1.6M from the hedge close is enough to pay down any debt) plus 600k oz on the leach pad at $10 per oz we still don't get to $22M.
If we price the co at 1M oz/yr at $3/oz EBITDA and give a P/E of 10 we get $30M MC.
I'm thinking with the POS bounce it might just be worth it. However, I expect we will have a bit of time before we need to decide. The March qtrly and POS action will have a significant bearing on which way it falls.
Considering the Jan qtrly had them pretty much bankrupt based on current assets minus current liabilities, it might just be the lifeline it needs.
AYN Price at posting:
0.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
