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I must say, I've done a lot of digging and it's very hard to...

  1. 3,817 Posts.
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    I must say, I've done a lot of digging and it's very hard to find a situation where the SP actually reflects valuation range I come up with.

    Given the first quarter update, I have:
    - toned down the operating delta to 20% (instead of +46% from guidance)
    - calculated implied integration costs, for the 1st half
    - calculated implied PBT for 2nd half (based on 20%)
    - factored in a CR worth 31.5m in shares at $1.60
    - removed the associated finance costs related to now having this capital (interest payment reduction)

    THEN, assume FY16 has no growth and no integration costs, and I come up with a P/E of less than 8...


    Given the following, the debt-load is quickly becoming less of a problem
    - Management have flagged a CR
    - I haven't factored in amortisation of customer contracts (the cash is already gone - the charge doesn't mean much in this case)
    - The CEO does not receive a salary, only dividends (no income if the company is making a loss)
    - Chris Price (one of the execs) is remunerated based purely on performance (quite impressive actually - reminds me a little of Kevin Chin @ AWN)
    - The management team have been buying
    - 100% of NPAT is paid out and DRP is available

    My valuation range comes up with a bottom end of $2.20... and given the facts, I'm being quite conservative.

    More than happy to post my calculations or argue the specifics if anyone is interested.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
$8.70
Change
0.040(0.46%)
Mkt cap ! $1.572B
Open High Low Value Volume
$8.60 $8.77 $8.60 $1.899M 218.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 1173 $8.68
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$8.73 406 2
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Last trade - 16.11pm 30/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
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