I must say, I've done a lot of digging and it's very hard to find a situation where the SP actually reflects valuation range I come up with.
Given the first quarter update, I have:
- toned down the operating delta to 20% (instead of +46% from guidance)
- calculated implied integration costs, for the 1st half
- calculated implied PBT for 2nd half (based on 20%)
- factored in a CR worth 31.5m in shares at $1.60
- removed the associated finance costs related to now having this capital (interest payment reduction)
THEN, assume FY16 has no growth and no integration costs, and I come up with a P/E of less than 8...
Given the following, the debt-load is quickly becoming less of a problem
- Management have flagged a CR
- I haven't factored in amortisation of customer contracts (the cash is already gone - the charge doesn't mean much in this case)
- The CEO does not receive a salary, only dividends (no income if the company is making a loss)
- Chris Price (one of the execs) is remunerated based purely on performance (quite impressive actually - reminds me a little of Kevin Chin @ AWN)
- The management team have been buying
- 100% of NPAT is paid out and DRP is available
My valuation range comes up with a bottom end of $2.20... and given the facts, I'm being quite conservative.
More than happy to post my calculations or argue the specifics if anyone is interested.
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I must say, I've done a lot of digging and it's very hard to...
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Last
$8.70 |
Change
0.040(0.46%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.572B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.60 | $8.77 | $8.60 | $1.899M | 218.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1173 | $8.68 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.73 | 406 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1173 | 8.680 |
3 | 2407 | 8.660 |
3 | 1406 | 8.650 |
4 | 3469 | 8.600 |
2 | 1785 | 8.590 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.730 | 406 | 2 |
8.760 | 5711 | 1 |
8.770 | 5711 | 1 |
8.780 | 200 | 1 |
8.800 | 359 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.11pm 30/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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