"Higher interest rates are impacting the economy so our Revenue will grow by "only" 22% this year. In the meantime, as we always do, we are implementing the growth plans for the next three years, starting with investing in capability right now which might cause a few bps of reduction in operating margins, but that's what we do; we don't sacrifice long-term shareholder value creation for pumping up short-term profits."
I remember when one of their earlier 3-Year strategic objectives was to reach $120m Revenue (If memory serves, I think that target was set in 2017; as it happens they got there in just two years.)
My call is that they will be at a $400m annual Revenue run-rate in 2026.
At a 11.5% to 12% NPAT margin, this would mean NPAT somewhere around $45m - $48m (108cps - $115cps).
I think the P/E re-rating of the stock has run its course, and is unlikely to rise further (it might, but I'm not banking on it); but even if the current 20x multiple holds, it would result in a share price of somewhere in the low-$20.
That translates into a compound annual capital appreciation of 12% to 14%pa, plus 3% or 4% pa in dividends, for total annualised investment return of 15% to 17%.
Which I think is a very attractive prospect, given the nature of the business, the excellent track record of it board and management, and the low level of execution risk.
In terms of an investment thesis for this company, any higher order thinking than the above is simply a waste of energy, I think.
Other than three times a year (financial reports and AGM), its a company to which I pay zero attention.
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SNL Price at posting:
$15.40 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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