Firstly, I am a MIN holder and nearly had a punt at NWE @ 0.01 but we can't win them all.
Secondly, my average buy price for MIN is in the 13's and I have increased my holding just over 40% through Divi reinvestment alone so I am doing well. Although would be doing a lot better with some cheap NWE shares I was looking at around 18-20 months ago approximately.
Thirdly, congrats to many shareholders who have entered NWE at a very low cost and have made a killing, congratulations to all of you and your families. Some of you would be set for life and I guess that is the goal of many here. A financially safe future for our families.
Point 1. I know when it comes to money it is easy to get heated but the amount of rubbish and blatant lies and insults that are coming through the NWE forum and also MIN is disappointing but not surprising to see. It is misleading and ruins the environment here.
Please keep your emotions in check and post facts or at least with some basic research or numbers.
Example 1: CE / MIN lost money on the Warrego strategic investment.
My analysis below suggests a decent return. Please verify yourself as it's been a long day.
$69,705,095 for 200 M shares
$13,570,195 for 34,767,298 shares
234,767,298 for a total cost price of $83,275,290 @ 0.35471418170 per share.
Profit per share : 0.0052858182 @ 36 cents sale price
Total profit before trading costs/tax
etc = 1,240,937.2565332236
I note other posters have done the maths aswell and have come up with a smaller profit but still a profit nonetheless.
There is over 10 posts about how MIN lost money which is simply untrue.
Example number 2.
Some of the EPS and PER and other figures are completely wrong for MIN. Being wrong is one thing but being wrong knowingly is another. There was one post where it was even suggested MIN had an EPS of 0.12 cents per share.
Posters saying why they would want a MIN dividend of $1 per share when the average forecast is the following:
EPS/DIV
2023: 8.93 / 4.09
2024: 14.60 / 6.20
The amount of growth that MIN has in the next couple years is amazing imo. There is a reason it has returned the second best annual return over the last 15 years or so.
The above forecasts suggest over $10 bucks in dividends over the next two years alone.
Point 2) Compare apples with apples. Saying MIN has increased doubled so is overpriced is some rookie analysis.
With that mindset, NWE has Six X in the last 12 months so are they overvalued? Can't believe what I'm reading. Just be realistic with your analysis, at the end of the day it is better for NWE holders that MINs share price rises...
Point 3) I actually wish MINs offer was all cash. Less dilution for MIN holders and it's a minimal amount for MIN, won't affect our growth plans.
Point 4) If your are hoping for another bidder, I honestly doubt it would be GINA after Warrego today. Most likely if anyone else wanted to make a punt, they would have showed there hands by now. But MINs deep pockets and blocking stake are key factors imo.
Point 5) Be realistic with your self. Expecting 1.5B or even more with some of your wishful thinking of 20c a share is just speechless.
That would value MINs 80% ownership at 7.5B. Meaning the rest of the lithium business which is too 4 in the world and the largest mining servicing company along with Iron Ore production is valued at only around 9B.
Point 6) Be respectful to each other. We are all in it to make some money. If you don't like the offer, don't accept but don't spread lies and insults. Goes for both MIN and NWE holders. By all means post, share, shout from rooftops NO of you want but let's keep to facts or evidence based research.
In my opinion, CE is a hell of a shrewd operator and is ruthless. He has turned MIN from a minnow to a strong growth oriented company that just keeps doubling in size and earnings. If he wants NWE which he does, I believe he will get it.
Alot of holders thought MIN wouldn't double when it was in the $40s even though CE said he would triple the business multiple times, and he is certainly on its way. Lithium is booming at record prices, Iron Ore will increase production and lower it's cost base that is competitive with the majors, Mining services increase each year, energy will come online. This company will be very different in 4 years time.
PS: Don't get caught up in wild expectations to forget to enjoy the wins along the way.
All the best to all holders.
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