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Alexei I really enjoy your posts regarding future earninfs for...

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Jezalenco

25 Posts.

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11/12/22

16:17

Post #: 65263728
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Originally posted by alexei ii: ↑

should be x 3 on the back of walyering and FID on WE in a dom gas scenario.
Export = massive difference - depending on quantity.

People forget, once you pay opex anything above that adds directly to the bottom line. Here's an example, it is simplistic, but meant to illustrate the quantum leap:

Case 1: i.e. If its costing you $3/GJ to deliver and youre getting paid $7/GJ, thats $4/GJ in your ebitda pocket.
Case 2: using the same cost scenario...but now you're getting $23/GJ from export pricing, thats $20/GJ in your ebitda pocket in rough terms (royalties aside)

So if my EBITDA goes from $4/unit to $20/unit what does that do to the asset price? Using an ebitda valuation multiple of 4 (you can use other ebitda multiples i use between 3 and 4 for rough back of env calcs).

the asset value of the dom case scenario is $16/unit.
the asset value of the export case scenario is $80/unit

Now you can see why beach and mitsui are laughing all the way.

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Alexei I really enjoy your posts regarding future earninfs for STX and the other pb gas find.
STX Price at posting: 34.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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