CUP is the culmination of 10 years of financial industry growth, regulatory upheaval and consolidation.
There have been quite a few regretful acquisitions that blew up. They hurt the share price and damaged the reputation of management. Then there have been some very good acquisitions, like Accurium, a positive cash flow cow that will keep on giving.
DVR is big. I see it as a game changer. But so too is the huge CBA stock hangover. They want out.
l am expecting DVR to take 12 to 18 months to be beefed down and to add $8m to NPAT or around 5cps. There is a bit of execution risk, but a lot of synergies.
A re-rate based on a more stable and predictable profit with very strong cash flows should happen by late 2025 with the share price much closer to $1 once CBA is out of the picture.
This is a long term business build with exceptionally predictable cash flows. The Haynes Royal Commision took out 4 cps in ongoing revenues essentially overnight in 2018/2019, Covid crushed continuity in 2020/2021 and the recovery has only happened since then.
l am acquiring aggressively, very aggressively in 50s. As always, my value based positions carry a lot of risk. But they also deliver exceptional returns when they come off as most end up doing.
Capital, strategy, time and patience are my biggest assets and l tey to leverage them. Count is very unlikely to go bust so when the reluctant DVR holders are dying to get out, l have seized the opportunity to double up.
Dividends never really matter to me, but they help the market to re rate businesses. I expect next year, a 4.5cps payout will be quite likely once the acquisition indigestion has passed and cash flows are bedded down.
That is my thesis for an 80c plus stock price in 2025.
GLTASH.
CUP Price at posting:
57.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
