Ann: Change in substantial holding from FEX, page-33

Spot price at the time of negotiation undoubtedly plays a large role in negotiated price of the deal. Of course, they can negotiate a better deal at $100 than $50. It plays an anchoring effect for both parties. NPV is lower now for Robe than it was 12 months ago. It takes a great deal of faith and conviction to persuade another that the price of the commodity will increase significantly from here on in.

It cannot be guaranteed that IO price will go above $140 any time soon. Buy maybe it will in 1 year or maybe in 20 or anywhere in between? What is the real value of a deal based on time horizons? Seeing a commodity price double in 1 year vs 20 years carries different value. In one year that's a 100% return, over 20 its less than 3.5% return per year. So what value can FEX extract from Robe based on current IO price. I think the current IO price is mis represented on a chart that looks back on 10 years of IO prices. Recent Inflation would have our current IO price closer to ~$85 on pre COVID levels than the shown $100 comparable to pre COVID prices.

In short, I think IO is relatively cheap. There is likely more upside to its value than downside. That does not mean that IO price cannot test 2016 levels before a speedy rebound. In terms of your comments about spot prices being irrelevant, I would have to disagree. For many of the reasons above, it is crucial to the feasibility of proposed projects. Why develop an asset that is uneconomical at current spot prices? Forecasts of future increase in spot prices are not worth the paper they're written on.

In your unlisted holdings, I can see you have confused price with value, price of FEX or CZR is not what their value is. Value is not anchored to rosy projections of a flying car like future either. Projections on generational futures are more or less bedtime stories told by those taking money to those having their money taken from them. The first ever car was electric, and they tried electric cars in the 70s too, both times failed. New generations have the same ideas of previous generations minus the benefit of hindsight from the generation past.