Ann: Change in substantial holding from HHL, page-101

Tinyteddy, I can't ease your mind on this, but this is not a stock that I'd be trading on Technical Analysis alone. TA has its uses but in this case we know exactly why the SP fell, and in fact it was predicted by many knowledgeable people on this forum as to how far it would fall given a sub-optimal outcome of the trial. I don't need to know about fibonacci retracement levels for this stock to work out when to buy and sell.

I was one of those that bought a while back because I liked the story, sold before the trial outcome because I didn't like the risk of a negative outcome, and then rebought immediately after the trial results because I thought the stock had been oversold (in fact I tripled my holdings).

As you point out, we have imperfect information at the moment and until that is clarified in May we have to trade only on what we know (current usage and growth rates) plus a premium/discount for what might be announced at the conference, plus a premium/discount for what might be the outcome of the FOXFIRE study in early 2017, plus other trials. Finally you always have to factor in the left field event like the discovery of another treatment /cure which makes SIR-Spheres irrelevant.

I'll finish by commenting on the current SP rise (I think over 15% in the last week alone). Clearly this is not based on any factual information unless there is insider trading and/or a leak. So what is happening? My suggestion is, like the former rise to nearly $40, there are enough people out there with a Fear Of Missing Out who are buying before the conference, in the hope/expectation that the company will clarify that the results weren't as bad as first announced. Which means that the SP in the short term might have some way to go, before another possible step change after the conference, when once again we can value the company on fundamentals (until the next trial results are announced!).

Although quite frustrating, it actually makes for some very interesting trading opportunities.