Ann: Change in substantial holding from HHL, page-30

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  1. 8,917 Posts.
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    'IMO the deck is stacked against SIRSpheres achieving first line treatment anytime soon. Good luck all though. I hope I am wrong. '

    Sarge, you are 100% correct. To move to 1st line as a 'standard of care' would require a reasonable OS improvement, IMO, in excess of 3 months. And this probably would not occur prior to 2017. I think SRX have been very open about this and their 'own experts' have always ensured that anyone who will listen to them is aware of the risks. As have senior management including Dr Cade.

    As you say it is most interesting that UBS have increased their target price by ~40% a week or so before the top line results are known, along with RM going outside the 'Value' concept that is sold by his Skafold software product. Maybe the world has gone made RM could be just talking their book and possibly selling down as being a holder with less than 5% we will never know.

    I think most would also agree with you that a top line failure would result in a substantial drop of the SP - you never know it may get back to a price you would be happy with of around $15-18. Your view of hoping you are wrong, is most altruistic as you appear to be waiting for a large drop so you can get in at a price you like. Good luck with your view, but if the results are good (including the data in May) will you be re-evaluating your buy-in price?

    Many of us have posted time and again that SRX is not a one way bet, and it could go wrong. For many long term holders it is an easier call, but your warnings are very valid and everyone buying at current prices should be aware of the risks.

    I guess UBS clients would be most upset if they took a stake based on their target, if it proved very wrong.
 
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