Thanks for providing the broker data @Seb93 I personally find it interesting and helpful to track movements in the register. Bit of a lull at the moment but I suspect we will see activity ramp up again soon enough.
Latest Top 20 is out and no surprise, not much has changed. An immaterial ~3m increase in shares to the Top 20... biggest mover was Netwealth Investments, bought another ~7m, now sitting at no.14. Very minimal trading going on... not even 1% SOI traded in the last week. It's seems the rush for "placing bets" has eased... how long for? We shall see. Always expect the unexpected, in my experience anyway...
I have been reflecting on the Greens attempt to block any new federal funding for fossil fuel projects. Interesting to just read that our new Labor Govt played a straight bat and said "not on our watch". Something I have observed over recent times is that the one thing a political establishment can't survive, is the lack of reliability on energy supply. It is causing chaos not only in Europe, but even for first world countries like Australia. it is clear that energy security has come to the fore, overtaking affordability and sustainability (for how long?). Years of poorly thought out policy is coming home to roost.
Clear case in point is the recent G7 meeting a few weeks ago... where the G7 leaders announced a unified major U turn on energy policy... endorsing major investments in LNG infrastructure. Incredible to think only months ago, at the COP26 gathering, the G7 and fellow Europe leaders were racing to make some quite ambitious climate commitments. Now it's bin that, the race is on to simply secure enough oil and gas to last the upcoming winter!
Also, just reading that Credit Suisse has estimated that the global LNG market could be short nearly 100 million tons per year by the middle of the decade if the world moves to cut Russian gas (which is a given IMO). That is a shite ton of gas. Where is it going to come from?
But it is easier said than done, because new LNG capacity (not to mention new gas exploration before production) takes time to build and billions of $$$.
But here I am... thinking we have the NWS KGP (amongst some other proposed excess capacity LNG plants in WA), as the perfect assets to help supply the world with energy security. We know the NWS will soon need 1,000TJ a day of gas supply by 2030. That's a lot of gas. It would benefit no one to have that much LNG capacity sit idle. The NWS JV don't want that. And we know the WA govt and Fed govt will benefit immensely from exporting LNG (QLD alone is enjoying ~$1bn+ p.a. in royalties from O&G exports).
I think the smartest move was locking in the WA 15% domgas policy which IMO the east coast markets need to replicate. We can ensure affordable and adequate supplies to the WA domestic mkt (which @ 1,200TJ per day is ~equal to the entire east coast gas market which is facing major security issues), and we can then help the world by exporting every GJ of gas we can for a very, very healthy profit. A logical and progressive transition to renewable energy... if only.
And just to remind some readers on the recent pricing trend of LNG... and how lucrative it is for the likes of Australia and all gas players, particularly those in WA (ala NWE)... the Platts JKM Asian LNG spot price averaged $18.60/MMBtu in 2021. In 2020... it averaged only $4.39/MMBtu. In 2022, spot prices sky rocketed, with the JKM price reaching a record high of $84.76/MMBtu in March. As we have seen by the financial models some posters have shared recently, the revenue and profit numbers are simply incredible. And because of years of significant underinvestment in O&G exploration and development worldwide, not just Australia, I believe we will see O&G prices stay elevated for some time.
So yes, the more I read... the more I feel oil, natural gas (specifically LNG), is going to be around for decades to come. And the likes of NWE are going to benefit substantially. I just hope we can survive to see the transition from explorer to producer... and someone doesn't come along to take us out for a song.
20c and we can start talking!
Cheers
NWE Price at posting:
4.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
