@V10Well articulated post. A couple of things to consider...
$6/GJ for dom gas is ancient history given the forecast gas supply deficits and the $12/GJ eastern domestic gas price cap. My view is that every thing will make its way up to $12/GJ...so using the metric you proposed, $4/GJ would sit a lot better with me, if I were to be convinced to offload my holding.
A 3-4TCF resource will command an export exemption, so part of Lockyer will make its way overseas at a netback of the mid $20/GJ. So now my $4/GJ has risen to $6-8/GJ...Can you see how much money will be left on the table?
Our friends HPPL paid $2/GJ for Warrego. Which would put NWE at double its current market cap...but my opinion is that Gina got herself a bargain. But Warrego was a special basket case. If gina wants it - for me, she can wait until the four drills are in and the seismic is done.