Very well written and thought out, best I have read for awhile
1000:1 is my minimum and agree with the logic,
Substantial risks in proving up the resource, difficult future relationship with MIN/NWE, funding, the O&G cycle. Just looking at the "potential" gas resource and total in ground dollars is not realistic. NPV is difficult to estimate, the market is saying at present NWE is locked to MIN at 1300:1.
Equally, believe there is near term risk with MIN. Share price has been up by recent Lithium speculation, the new darling commodity, the future does look bright, but MIN is at the beginning of this curve, and the material volume is in its infancy. I need a much improved ratio for this risk. Lithium is currently a very volatile commodity priced at a significant premium.
I wouldn't discount the rig timing not being pushed by MIN, but there is no way to know.
The timing of either CE offer and the next drilling campaign are linked.
Nothing is for sure, 3D evaluation and at least 2 more drills will settle a significant amount of the risk, prepared to wait if offer isnt improved.
Seen the bad with FAR-Woodside and CVN-Santos, post discovery, both went the way I didn't expect
My personal stab is around 3-4TCF of gas mid-case recoverable over the next 20 years on current NWE leases ~800BCF to NWE, I have no problem with the resource. Alot can happen in that time, we have no idea, risk for either a downturn or reward for NWE are large. NWE is a small company employee-wise, structure, production totally management and skills non-existent with a significant piece of a monster. You need alot of faith in the board to engineer its way through life with MIN long term.
For those that don't see the risks as great, I understand, and I am most likely wrong to some level. I do hope most shareholders benefit to an optimum level given what we know today, not focused on one future which may not happen. I guess most have a very short horizon in reality, exploration drill phase.
