NWE (ASX) Ann: Change in substantial holding from MIN

Originally posted by jctrout: ↑

ok friends, here's the bulk of my work on the resource condensed. LD was the only one valued due to having a straw in it proving gas was present. Lead A and B are shot, they're in the the Corybas fault block and are unlikely to be valid due to water. Lead C is in territory that was classified as tight soil on the northern side of the Alanooka fault, so it can't be valued at all until tested, likewise Springy Creek. Lead D could be the next best prospect in my view and should have been an exploration target. Lead F is too far into the trough and is likely to be a feeder to west Erregulla and Lead E rather than a true target. Lead E itself in my view is partly water bound and has a true aerial extent of approx 34km2, not 74km2 as reported. Lead E is likely to be a stacked profile similar to West Erregulla and similar net pay, so it wouldn't produce like Lockyer in my view.
Lockyer in my view is approx 3.6TCF gross and represents 600bcf net pay to NWE. I'd say around 650 a 700 bcf net pay for NWE once drilled.
Iain from my conversations with him always viewed GIP evaluations at $1 Gj as fair value. given what happen with WGO didn't change his view, even he considered it high priced but Gina needed gas for her operations so she went for it. He must have seen $500m MC as the minimum fair value to move the company, but as we all know this was played poorly and gave no opportunity for additional premium to be extracted.
STX played a master hand and managed to make a serious pay out of it for themselves, enough to fund the next two years aside from the urea plant.
I see MIN updating their offer to 1:1200, then 1:1080 before this closes out but never value NWE more than $500m MC, so you can see where I think MINs share value is going. we'll likely see NWE bounce around between 5.6 - 7.4cps during all of this until the next two drills get done, then MIN will suffocate NWE into insolvency within the next 12months and 1:1080 is what you'll get.
anyway, that's my guess, no financial advice given.
GLTAH and DYOR.

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thx for sharing those views @jctrout ...

Just to clarify...the market price now for resources is $2/GJ - does not matter what ginas motives were...thats the price it took to move. $1/GJ was back in 2018/9 when AWE sold waitsia, when gas prices were $3 and $4/GJ...

for the avoidance of doubt...you did not have the benefit of any early 3D seismic data or Ringneck 2D data to aid you in your views? lol

Im still hanging on as long as i can. The company has a history of understating its resources...thats not a good tactic when you're a t/o target. Good luck with everything.

everyone else...Im still going to post something about the Springy Creek area...