Also remember they need 80% for the CGT rollover to be allowed. I wouldn't expect large holders with high gains to want to give nearly quarter to the ATO (assuming 50% CGT discount and 45% marginal tax rate). I wouldn't class myself as a large holder, but it would still be 6 figures tax for me (outside super). So the options are; sell on market, certainty of CGT, certainty of cash; Swap for MIN shares, likelihood (atm) of CGT, risk of MIN sp deflating; or hold for a better offer or drilling results. IMO there will be a big push to get over 50% for an automatic extension of the offer; or they will extend anyway. It would be a big poke in the eye for those who have already swapped for MIN shares if they closed off the offer short of 80%. It will be an interesting few days! (I am not taking up the offer as it stands).
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