Ann: Change in substantial holding from NAB, page-4

Hi Josh, I can't help you with picking the bottom. I am not sure where that is.

I can tell you a little about my view of SAI and you can make your own decision.

SAI is nominally an index hugger and trades in line but at a premium to the wider ASX200 except where some catalyst causes a divergence like a couple of years ago when Private Equity ran the ruler and the sp went to $5.20.

If you graph the SAI share price with ASX200, you can see the premium for last year's improved result has been knocked off in the last 2 months.

This coincides with with a lot of churn amongst the substantial holders with Paradice Investment and Vinva Investment ceasing and NAB and most recently PPT joining. Credit Suisse were also substantial for a couple of days until they returned 3m shares to NAB they'd borrowed. There is no substantial shorting going on that I can see.

All this churn with a restricted free float (92% held by the top 20) and a bear market (budget, election, US and Chinese growth) seems to indicate SAI is just following the wider narrative. Personally I don't think it reflects the fundamentals. SAI is in the bottom quadrant of the ASX200 based on an MC of $800m. It's 1 year share price performance is in the middle (-15%) along with TLS, CBA, ASJ and WBC.

I think the new CEO has done a pretty good job cleaning out the cardigan mentality and seems determined to build the business which has been on auto-pilot for years.

Not sure where the bottom is but this feels low to me. Note I am not buying or selling at this price.

Hope this helps