To ensure there is clarity on the risks with any PRY move you need to contemplate that a scenario may arise where PRY makes a scrip or cash bid at a standard premium to the current share price (eg 30-40% only, which is peanuts compared to its potential) and the bid falls short of 100% eg there is less than a controlling 50% take up, or even worse, just under 90% final take up, particularly where doctor partner related shareholders don't sell into bid offer.
The outcome then becomes another scenario such as the Kerry Stokes/West Australian Newspapers situation where effective control is obtained by PRY and any alternative bidder premium is killed off given PRY's significant interest (ie no other bidders or institutions interested in the stock) ie who wants to own a illiquid stock with a large shareholder, that's potentially disruptive, on its register with a blocking and controlling stake? There is a graveyard full of such stocks on the ASX that permanently trade at low PE's.
Meanwhile, doctor recruitment is put on hold due to uncertainty of VEI's long term ownership and strategic direction (new doctors are unwilling to join the PRY empire), existing doctor partners start departing (it is commonly understood they don't want to be part of PRY) and consequentially EBITDA growth reverses.
It is precisely the reason why there is so much current debate on Australia's creeping takeover rules; VEI existing shareholders are at real risk from copping it in the neck here.
At 20%, some of bidder tension premium embedded in the stock has already been lost.
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$1.61 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $1.176B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.60 | $1.64 | $1.59 | $8.209M | 5.112M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
35 | 32989 | $1.61 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.61 | 27087 | 28 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
28 | 34639 | 1.610 |
16 | 36439 | 1.605 |
12 | 65664 | 1.600 |
12 | 302152 | 1.595 |
3 | 7874 | 1.590 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.615 | 24066 | 24 |
1.620 | 34845 | 15 |
1.625 | 54153 | 13 |
1.630 | 74874 | 13 |
1.635 | 297678 | 14 |
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