Ann: Change in substantial holding - J.P.Morgan , page-55

re: Ann: Change in substantial holding - J.P.... After a day of rest from 5 days of shovelling, sweeping, hosing a mates and his neighbours place of mud etc, hopefully I've caught up. A few JCL's (love that acronym pisces) think I stink and you happen to be right.

There seems to be a few issues simmering.

1/ Agentm good to see you back. To my knowledge the 60 well drilling program in 2011 hasn't been broken into the 4 AMI's. However, last week I extrapolated out the wells on the basis of acreage retention basing the extrapolation on acreage of each AMI by WI rounding up or down the well total of each AMI into a whole well. I didn't save the speadsheet or have time to find my post but I think the end result was 9.2-9.3 wells net to AUT. At $8m a well, the capital cost accruable to AUT in 2011 would be $72-$80m. M8, you know the acreage better than I do re lease agreements/landowner holdings so hopefully you can refine the net wells extrapolation I came up with.

2/ JP Morgan conspiracy theory - nothing to add to JCL estseon comments

3/ Horsa - "Bottom line is every time Ive "profit taken" on AUT the market has made me quickly regret it." Tell me about it. Last time I sold was round about $1.15ish. I posted it I think. Took 25% of the SPP off the table.

4/ Agree with Sharejon. Retrace to $2.30 unlikely imo. However, there are some storm clouds gathering (pardon the bad pun) which I'll point out later. Newry2 has been our technical expert to us LTH's/thread and Newry's posts have been in and large accurate.

5/ Pump and Dump - Unfortunately, most of us have experienced this once or twice with other company's and chalked the loss up to the price of admission and hopefully learned from it. But if a stock goes from 27c to $2.60 in 12 months, that is one awesome pump OGG. However it has happened before. The thing about AUT which most of us have liked is the fundamentals and the progressive nature of them. They have drowned out Newry's observastions on occassions but that is the nature of the beast.

6/ Gifted shares - They were supposably gifted at $1.60 and the sp is now $2.60. An increase of 61.5%. To management. If you can gift again at $2.60 and get another SP increase of 61.5% please do. That will make the SP $4.25. I'll keep hold of 25% but sell the rest together with a very big thank you, CGT permitting.

Two worrying points:

1/ An analyst in the US has come out and said unconventional Shale O&G company's have overstated their expected production targets and understated the well declines etc and that the Shale O&G revolution is all hype and uneconomical.

Didn't save the website as I was skimming quickly for obvious reasons so the above para is IMO.

2/ USA is putting together another Study group on the enviromental aspects of fracc'ing
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=103229.

JCL's,

Hope you all become wealthy LTH's.