re: Ann: Change in substantial holding M Mast... Any "exciting"...

re: Ann: Change in substantial holding M Mast... Any "exciting" announcements are likely to be negative. Unheralded positive announcements will probably just be further exploration licenses, or the final granting of provisional ones.

The _expected_ positive announcements are:

* installation of condensate handling equipment at Sillaro, allowing return to higher production rates. Scheduled for this half, but dependent on regulatory approval, so... I expect this early next year.

* drilling of three wells this half (from the AGM presentation, Fantuzza, Canolo+Zini and Gradizza). On past performance I'll be astounded if they drill all of those - Fantuzza is dependent on a farm-in that doesn't seem to be happening - and wouldn't be surprised if they slip into next year.

* drilling of three more wells in the first half of next year (the AGM presentation suggests Bagnolo, Carola+Irma and Cembalina) - but there's no way they can afford to do Carola+Irma without major farm-ins which just don't seem to be happening. Also, production from Bezzeca via a pipeline to Castello is supposed to start - again, I expect regulatory delays to push this back to 2013H2, if not further.

All up I'll be happy if they get one or two wells drilled in each half, for a total of two or three over 2012H2 and 2013H1.

It's the slow regulatory process that keeps this LT.