The problem with specs is that they do not have fundamentals.
Fundamentals = proven business history – i.e. good historical cashflow, good return on assets, low gearing (ie low debt) and good capital management
With speckies:
· there is no historical cash flow to look at for another few years – we can only guess what cash flow may be IF they succeed in digging stuff out of the ground.
· There is no return on asset yet (cos they are not selling anything anytime soon) – in fact you don’t even know for sure how much the asset in the ground is worth or how much of it is there… all you can do is take an educated guess based on drilling data which wont always be 100% accurate and may be subject to restatements…
· You might have lots of cash and no debt but to dig stuff out of the ground you will need to borrow a lot more or issue allot more shares
So it essentially comes down to how much we trust the management team to be able to manage the company (ie to deliver the project)… Other external factors will impact this ass well for example:
So, in summary, with speckies you cant just look at “fundamentals” you have to look at everything that affects its ability to dig things out of the ground.
You should also remember that speckies are considered to be very risky so whenever there is bad news they market will almost always overreact by a lot, the same goes for the good news…
BTR Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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