Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-57

accaeric,
Firstly, reading from some of the information onother IO companies, the discount for 58% had fallen to 15-18%, so I imagine the discount for 60% would be lower, plus of course the crash in the shipping rates and oil price since guidance was given.

If anything I'd expect a surprise to the upside in the quarterly, though management should release information about these things when they happen, ie continuous disclosure.
It's quite possible that cash is a bit more positive than the 80c/t you suggest, and next quarter barring IO falling to $US50, could be $10-20/t ($Aus) positive, a definite upside surprise.

Can the SP fall lower in a vacuum of information? absolutely, but at 15-16c, there is not much downside risk compared to reward. A falling $Aus trend continuation could really help with cash and corresponding debt reduction.
3b shares is too many, so a consolidation of 1/5, bringing it back to just under 600m, would put it back into investment grade along with continued debt reduction. A 1/5 consolidation brings the price to 75c, positive cash surprises would take it over $1/sh fairly quickly. There are funds that only buy $1+ shares.

Also, something I read recently on another forum, shares that drop out of the ASX100, outperform those that go into it. So personally I would be looking forfurther purchases at these prices, then an exit when it goes back into the ASX100 down the track.
My buy in point is 16c, so I don't have a lot of downside, first blip up I'll be adding.