ARI (ASX) Ann: Change in substantial holding

Originally posted by Damian92013 ↑

Got it.

I think your logic is similar to mine and possibly others.
Assuming Allan Gray and Singapore investment corp are professionals, then you're not as amateurish as you might think. They've been accumulating. UBS were underwriters at one point.
If these proffessionals with teams of analysts can't find anything to scare them. And they are buying right now.
What hope do peasants like us have of uncovering anything.
Iron ore at these levels isn't a very profitable game for any producer, large or small.
The board isn't playing games with cost cutting. I believe they are acting swiftly and are creating a much more profitable animal when IO recovers. Plus the draw card is the steel business. The board also said they should move to profitability in the second half of 2015. Of all the mid teers they have the greatest chance of being effective.
So, we have Gina, Kerry and Allan all proffessionals, all billionaires.
All being called idiots by brokers that Catch the train to work. We are All being warned that IO will be given away and BHP and RIO are happy to go through life with margins that are a shadow of their former self. What Rio and Bhp have done is working. But, Arrium is right up front getting leaner and meaner, and the big boys wont want to cop these margins forever.
As the joke goes about the two guys in the jungle stalked by the lion.
One guy stops to put his sneakers on and the other guy says you can't out run a lion!
The first guy says it's not the lion I've got to out run.
It's not the big boys that Arrium needs to out run. It's already got its sneakers on.
Fortescue's failed fund raising reminded us of how Arrium screwed it for everyone else. Nobody wants to be the next UBS.

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"Assuming Allan Gray and Singapore investment corp are professionals, then you're not as amateurish as you might think."

Only 5% of managed funds outperform the index.

Allen Gray produces returns no better than an index fund and worse than a portfolio of Blue Chips.

The recent acquisition of shares by the Singaporeans is actually described as "collateral" with no purchase price. It is presumably connected with a debt.

"So, we have Gina, Kerry and Allan all proffessionals, all billionaires."

Many billionaires have lost their entire fortunes. Here are five well known examples.
http://au.ibtimes.com/bankrupt-billionaires-saga-5-billionaires-who-lost-all-fortunes-1311425

"All being called idiots by brokers that Catch the train to work."

Roughly 80-90% of counter-cyclic investments result in a complete loss of capital. In most cases the brokers are correct.