Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-61

Lets see,
very soon there will be a mining qtrly.
very soon we will know whether ARI exported 3mt or more of IO.
very soon we will know whether their average cash recieved exceeded $53AU at which I calculate their current breakeven on a cash basis.

Your guess is as good as mine,however if you work it out we are talking of between a +$3 to minus $5/ton on production direct cash costs(+$9m to -15m$) given where the $AU happened to be with southern Iron production in and last QTRs $AUcash costs converted to $US.

So someone doing some maths could get these figures.

A bit of simple maths IO cash costs -$15m
mining consummables +$50m earnt mainly in US$ +15%
total interest costs -$25m mainly in US$ +15%
Steel ????????++++++++$$$$$$ who's $ 1500 sales (6mo) div 2 x 65% sales effected by dumping who's US$ price to AU$ has just gone up 15%. on around $500m of product competition. i.e $75m comparative advantage to ARI for the last 3 months($300m/yr).
-15+75Au=$50m less minings $8/ton capital expenditure =$AU24m
$US mining 50m-$US25m int=$US25M operational cash flow less capital exp $15m ($80 m au)= $US10m+

write-off were already factored into the 48c Capital raising.
The question to ask is IO cash outgoings going to cost more this year than steels $300m 12 month boost in comparative $advantage and mining consummables growth in profits as they too will now be able to build on stable steel feed costs rather than selling the steel content for less than they have been paying as the cost price has fallen.

So IMHO ARI's safe from an operational daily cash flow ,though not great in a declining IO price environment.
So is it up from here for ARI as a WHOLE ,or not?

DYOR + DYODD happy with more caught at 16.5c last week.Very hard to catch the bottom as they say.If ARI was worth 48c,then has 33c x 3BN shares of capital physical cash value disappeared.i.e. $1bn.
If mining consummables worth more than the total of ARI's debt pays the interest and pays for its own growth?
If minings worth nothing much currently,then is steel that with existing exchange rates is capable of earning $3-400m worth the market cap of $400m,or MORE?