I don't think RA capital is intentionally holding the price down. Not really in their best interest to do that. At the end of the day I reckon free carrying the 13mil options is enough for them. And the selling appears to be too consistent I.e approx 1.2 mil over 6 months for the last 18 months. Not really manipulation there, just slowly and steadily reducing their holding at a pace such that they'll have sold the lot by 2019. But the options give them front row seats until 2019. Holding the shares just doesn't make sense when they could sell and use the proceeds to make another lucrative deal in the meantime. And the 2019 expiry doesn't mean it'll take that long to reach the real value. That was just well negotiated to make sure RA Capitals risk is minimized.
As we approach the IPO, it may no longer be in RA Capital's interest to reduce their holding. Who knows, but I doubt it is any existing holders intention to get the price down (unless they want more shares of course). Even if RA Capital continues to sell down their holding, I suspect as we approach the IPO, interest will build and demand for shares will exceed RA Capital's supply. Price will rise... We won't see stop losses getting hit, and it wont take long before we'll see the same FOMO we had in early 2014. But this time it will be for real. After this one there may not be another chance to take a slice of the pie so cheaply.
BLT Price at posting:
75.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held