LYC

0.39%

$7.75 lynas rare earths limited

Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-47

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goofy

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20/01/18

15:39

Post #: 30437809
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Originally posted by ContraryJ ↑

Thanks for link. I never saw your reply. So my numbers are laughable! I used Au 2.64 for the LA and CE. Now todays price for 99.x% La and CE is about 14.5 RMB per gram which is US $1.75 KG = AU $ 2.10 KG without VAT. Now could you explain your statement of “What about value of high grade La and Ce products the company has developed and now selling? “ Now why do you think Lynas’s high grade carbonate will sell for more than my AU 2.56 when 99% Oxide is selling for AU 2.10 today. I would really like to see those numbers.

Sales up 10% Maybe it all depends on what you think contract delay is. If you think it is 90 days or less then I do not see how that can happen. More then 120 days and maybe. I have been graphing prices for some time and have Lynas’s Average sales price on same graph. I think delay is between 120 days and 150 so maybe. Trouble is they Keep changing ratio between NDPR and La & Ce which really makes guessing inaccurate

As far as SEG goes I THINK Price is between $20 and $50 I believe volume of SEG is consistent though AL has said she will not sell below $15.00 which it was a year ago. So SEG is 5% of 6Kt /Q put through crack and leaching or 300 KG times $30 is $1M/ Q not a big impact. Every penny helps, you can worry about it if you want but at 1% of sales I chose to ignore it as a major factor Absolutely include $1M but if it is 800 K of 1.2 M who cares. So why is important to you?

So I think your guess on sales is very good how about ash flow and earnings. If both positive the stock goes up both negative stock goes down. Now when cash flow comes out next Tuesday we all have 3 weeks to guess at profits. My guess if Cash flow is more negative than lass Q which I think it will be then that is 2 Qs of increasing negative cash flow stock will drop.

Cash 30 June 63,9
Cash 30 Sept 58.4 minus 5.5
Cash 30 Dec ??????

Now this is just experience whenever stock drops the week before announcement something has leaked.

Not saying anything has leaked just Usually stock goes up on leacked good news and down on fact. Down on leacked bad news and down more on fact. There are always exceptions.

i do not know I just go with averages.

Expand

SEG is 5% of nameplate production or 275t per quarter. Using A$25/Kg equates to revenue of around A$6.8m per quarter. Your method of calculating SEG revenue is wrong.

As mentioned in the June quarterly report, we have succeeded in developing a new grade of Ce which translated into higher sales this quarter and a higher average selling price. We expect these improvements to be sustainable, and have another higher purity grade under development.
Our Lanthanum was fully qualified at two new customers during the September quarter and regular commercial supply to those customers is scheduled to start from January 2018.

https://www.lynascorp.com/Shared Do...orts/2017/171016 Quarterly Report 1726175.pdf

High purity Ce and La price is around $US4/Kg I believe.

LYC Price at posting: $2.01 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $7.75		Change 0.030(0.39%)		Mkt cap ! $7.244B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$7.71	$7.81	$7.63	$12.03M	1.561M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	6556	$7.73

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$7.77	3385	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2000	7.640
3	20260	7.600
1	3000	7.550
2	2833	7.500
1	2000	7.430

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.840	293	1
7.850	6064	3
7.870	2000	1
7.890	8800	2
7.900	24269	7

Last trade - 16.10pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

LYC (ASX) Chart

Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-47

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Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-47

Top Stories

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Tigers Realm's US$49M sale of Russian assets – to a Kremlin-adjacent billionaire – set to go ahead

Week 41 Wrap: HotCopper asks “Back to Mongolia?” for Elixir; US CPI comes in at 2.4%; eyes still on China

Cauldron Energy reports "excellent" uranium assays in latest drill run

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Defence MOU for propulsion systems pushes Aurora Lab shares higher

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Issues emerging as Australian companies tackle critical minerals challenge

Sunshine Metals kicks off copper gold drilling at Truncheon; Highway East targets

NRW Holdings inks $109M deal with BHP for works at Jimblebar

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News