AVH 1.66% $2.96 avita medical inc.

Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-12

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  1. 9,401 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 880

    Beware of that number IMO.  When you put it in context .


    They used it as a catchy headline . I don't believe it is right.  They are not approved for all indications within that number and are IMO not viable on treatment cost for a % of it either.  I've given a glimpse of numbers previously.


    In regards to quarterly it may include headline number of stocking orders and unless they can continue at a increased growth rate in following quarters and then with training , rebate, discounting, and eventually old stock replacement / returns  coming into the picture it may be hard to decipher real demand and real ongoing sales  as headlines will look better but just like in other markets the real sale price is much lower and costs of business are much greater.  Barda order may well be adjusted as it was originally IMO thought to be approved for adult and pediatric but now only approved for adult so a % discount may be applicable or slower uptake depending on contract details. 

    Are they likely to release real monthly or quarterly numbers of actual sales or used product - no and with the history  you need to be very cautious especially considering they are still putting i out there to attract attention and get interest in OS listing.  Shenanigans will continue because of this and the want to keep snouts in the trough. A OS listing will increase costs to business no end as management will want further compensation and constant issues of cheap stock etc etc etc They will do it too early and average small holders will be diluted to the crapper and excluded from rewards.  Depends on what direction major controlling holder wants to take it and how much time pressure they place and where they believe they can extract quickest buck and board reps to keep an eye on direction. 


    The more detailed quote in context but still missing critical detail IMO.

    "

    U.S. Market Launch

    In anticipation of approval, AVITA Medical has undertaken substantial efforts to prepare for the U.S. market launch. These initiatives include the recruitment of sales and marketing leadership highly experienced in regenerative medicine and the treatment of burns, completion and assimilation of extensive direct market research, and establishment of pricing and reimbursement strategies and support infrastructure. With the receipt of FDA approval, the Company will finalize its product packaging and promotional materials to reflect the final approval details and will complete the recruitment and hiring of its field sales team. The Company expects to formally launch the RECELL System in the U.S. in the fourth calendar quarter of 2018. The Company estimates that inpatient treatment of burns in the U.S., the initial target for the RECELL System, is an approximately USD $200 million market."

    Last edited by Teddyward: 1031 21/11/18
 
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