LVT 0.00% 0.6¢ livetiles limited

I think you are a little optimistic on expenses and the shape of...

  1. 275 Posts.
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    I think you are a little optimistic on expenses and the shape of revenue growth will be more lumpy than you forecast on a q by q basis but direction you are right.

    Getting into the detail, you have overstated LVT's December revenues slightly (due to N3 revenue catch up) and overstated Wizdom's recurring revenue but on the flip side you have not allowed for Wizdom's consulting revenue nor have you allowed for the June grant receipt which will both add to revenues.

    Quarterly revenues are relatively easy to forecast in the next two quarters because there is a direct link between previous years revenues and the growth in ARR 2 quarters ago as new customers become fee paying customers.
    So for example we can forecast March 2019 revenues as follows:
    (1) Renewed Subscriptions from March 2018 $1,345,000.
    (2) New Annual subscriptions commencing in March quarter from new customers announced in ARR growth in September (primarily) and December quarters  $1,000,000
    (3) New monthly and quarterly subscribers won since March 2018 approx $1, 600,000
    (4) Revenue from N3 $850,000
    (5) Recurring Revenues from Wizdom $1,800,000
    Thus a total recurring revenue of approx $6,600,000. On top of that we guestimate that Wizdom might have an additional $1,200,000 to $1,400,000 of professional service revenue. So coincidentally we end up close to $8,000,000 which is the same as you.
    However we expect professional service revenue to fade away over the next 6 quarters, so remember to build that into your forecasts.  On the other hand you assume a very flat growth in ARR whereas we assume the N 3 leads will kick in during the June quarter going forward

    Growth in ARR affects revenue in a lagged fashion (by about 1.5 quarters) because when you win a customer in the ARR space, typically contracts are signed towards the end of a quarter (its how companies work)  it takes 2 months to get implementation in place and the customer will often have a free first month and then 30 days terms.

    Business wins in the March Q will not affect the March revenues.They will slightly impact June and mostly impact September.

    The key for LVT is whether cash burn has inflected. If the trough of cash burn was September 2018 and each successive quarter burns less cash than the last, then investors will be able to see a clear path to positive cash flow. I think we have passed that inflection point....and that this will become more clear when March results are announced and even more clear after June. 
 
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