CDD 1.56% 31.5¢ cardno limited

When CDD floated in 2004 (at $1 - at a very low PE ratio) I...

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  1. 204 Posts.
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    When CDD floated in 2004 (at $1 - at a very low PE ratio) I couldn't get a firm allocation from the underwriting brokers, but I bought a parcel on the first day of trading at $1.40. CDD had kept on buying dozens of small and medium-sized engineering businesses at very low PE multiples, and once their profits were added to its bottom line (plus synergies) and re-evaluated by the market at a PE of 10 or 12 the SP kept climbing. A Gulf of Mexico oil spill proved a boon to their US environmental services subsidiary, and the SP hit $8.40 at some point. I sold my shares in the high $7s and was obviously very happy with the returns.
    Then came the disastrous US oil specialist purchase, and at $3-odd I got in again. Then came the first cap raising - highly dilutive, and sending the market into a frenzy of fear and panic selling. Then the second cap raising - at 40c(!). I subscribed to both, plus the maximum overallocation, but it had been a very nervous ride. At one point I was $200k under water.
    For a long time I used to think that CDD was a good company, having successfully integrated numerous acquisitions over the years, which had made just one big mistake. I thought that there would be a year of writedowns and restructuring, followed by a reasonable year and then a great year and a return to SP growth. Croasian's confidence that the SP was bound to hit $2 sooner or later really resonated with me. Finally, one day, a couple of years ago, the penny dropped: This dog may never recover. And even if it managed to pull out one good year, who would take it over at 10x EBITDA, just because it had one good year in five? So I got out at $1.40, making a decent profit, and waved them goodbye. Was my final profit worth the stressful ride? Maybe. Maybe not. At least I had some fun along the way with @croasian, @Germantheologist and @friendlydwarves.
    Lessons learnt: Some turnaround stories never turn (Boart Longyear, for example). Diversify. Don't put too many of your eggs in one basket. And don't fall in love with shares.
 
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