Not so fast... an investment thesis is proven correct because the assumptions and conclusions of that thesis are proven correct, not simply because the share price happens to go up.
Because if the thesis is ultimately incorrect, then the share price will be merely levitating with no fundamental support, and will end up back where it started.
And, as my posting history attests, my investment thesis for this stock has been a bit of a moving feast over the past 12 months, having come full circle...
...from (in November/December 2018): "Management will have to reverse expansion strategy, take the medicine and restructure the business."
...to (in February, after the DH2018 result announcement and after the Allensford bid expired): "Nah, management is insistent on keeping the company on the same value-destructive path"
....all the way back to (today): "Management (new) will reverse expansion strategy, take the medicine and restructure the business."
If the current thinking - not just mine, but clearly a lot of other investors - does not pan out, the stock price will surely promptly find itself closer to $2.50 than $4.00.
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