Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-6

Given the trading action of the last week, I am thinking a couple of participants are doing something they should not do. They are selling back and forth to each other. They have pushed the price down from 97 cents to 90 cents - in a very orderly fashion.

Now if 'participants' held shares and thought the sale will fall through they would not sell in such an orderly fashion. If they were panic sellers (following the market) the sells would be very substantial early on in the day. Yet, we have a very simply controlled fall.

I also note the last few days the 'close' was 1/2 cent or 1 cent below the main action. That is, the auction was set to just show the price a bit lower overnight.

Given this share used to trade, if lucky, 100k shares in a day, to see millions and millions trading hands is very, very odd. It is almost getting to the price it should be without any 'buy out offer' on the table. We are back to PE analysis. We are 3.5 cents per half year. That is with no growth. And with no growth the management team cannot command their extra $2 mill in bonuses for EBITDA growth. So, stagnation yields over 4+ cents PER HALF YEAR - so eps, after tax, around 9 cents yearly. I may start adding to my position again. Even if the buyout does not happen, there will be years of great earnings. If the buyout happens the someone buying at 89 cents, picks up 15% over three months of holding.

Mind you, maybe ANZ or WPL or NCM deserves investment over an 89 cent Zenith. Actually, on my watchlist, AGL or TLS seems best. I assume people (sitting at home avoiding the virus) will use GAL and ELECTRICITY and their mobiles and internet. Just like Zenith gold miners will use Zenith electricity.

What an interesting scenario. I talked to my Mrs. We have decided this current scenario will lead us to be rich or dead. The virus will kill us or make us rich.

We all cannot watch sport anymore (groups banned, I guess) but this share market watching is like sport hey. I sure hope all us little guys will survive and not be damaged financially, too bad. And the more I watch the media the more I see the media wants to hype. You recall last week lead stories re a greyhound in Newcastle having 'a' coronavirus. That is, truely, before the pandemic hype, the media gave us lead stories of a dog with a cold (at bottom of report they noted the dog cold (a corona virus) was no threat to humans).

Maybe I am all wrong, but if I am wrong, re the hype, and we will die.... then we all will just end up dead.

Now from March 2009 I put in as much money as I could into the market. I made good money. Then a broker actually STOLE IT. True story. So I started again about 3-4 years ago. I wonder if the crash happens bad, but I dont die, if I can go live under a solar panel at Nova.

I dont give advise. I just chat what I think. I have lost a few hundred grand TWICE (stolen twice, actually, once in 2000 and once in 2015) - and I have the court documents to prove it was stolen. But, alas, when your funds are stolen, the stealers dont give it back. They SPENT IT. What is hilarious is our court system. You can fight for years in court only for the court to say 'well, Mr Hoff, you are right, you have been cheated, but cheater is broke now, so bad luck for you, sorry Mr Hoff, we the court (and ombudsman) and govt depts and police did nothing to help you for years when you asked us.... and it was nice, Mr Hoff you were civil and used the courts as a gentleman; you have proved you have been cheated, and you cannot get your money back AND you get to pay our lawyers... and now you are broke... but you can start again, with a head held high. And dont worry, you will be dead one day and who gives a F.... certainly not the authorities or govt or court.

Maybe this will be the third time. But I dont think so. I feel confident. But watch out for my lead. I have a history of zigging when I should have zagged.