I have no idea who is buying and why, but the obvious reason is that a MC of around 50 million leaves room for the SP to at least triple.
Bearing in mind the PFS was made on the back of mill construction which had started and detailed analysis following the failed previous DFS, which is to say it was unusually thorough and conservative. More of a DFS than a PFS except for a couple of elements. The POG was rising as it was being prepared, which was a problem because who knew if that was a temporary spike or not? So the pits were based on a $1800 and the figures calculated on $2000 with $2200 as a sensitivity analysis. Since then the POG has gone up and world events maybe point to it at least staying up, so $2500 to $2700 would be comparable but still conservative figures.
On 368 000 ounces of recovered gold an extra $500 per ounce adds $184 million to the bottom line. Stating the obvious that is nearly 4 times the current MC.And the PFS figures weren't terrible to begin with ... they just weren't exciting.
Then there is the rest of the resource, which was calculated at what now seems a too conservative $2000 GP. At the very least it would be conservative to double the life of the mine by expanding the pits to $2000 shells, or $2200 or $2400 shells.
Included in the resource, but not the mining plan, is the Raeside resource, around 90k Oz. All of the tenements to the South, around Leonora, have had JV agreements signed now, but not the Raeside tenements. Raeside is just over the road from Sons of Gwalia, so there is potential to sell it (or just put it back in the mining plan. There is saline water in the existing pits but it is next to Lake Raeside which is huge dry salt pan .. St Barbara already send some saline water there, as well as using old pits. There are two main pits at Raeside, and only one has to be emply at one time) So I doubt at the current GP getting rid of the salt water in the pits would be a deal-breaker.
Stepping out of the resource, which was needed in Aug 19, now looks like a bonus. Kin could get the market's attention whenever it chooses just by re-doing the PFS figures to the current GP. On top of the current drilling program, which has obvious potential, there is also the geo physics which might be used to look under the 60% or so of Kin's leases covered in alluvium with no outcropping. Who knows what is under there? We haven't been told how the pilot geo physics went ... I am assuming plan A, to drill the outcropping areas closer to the mill, has been so successful to date that is the priority, given limited drilling $. Geo physics on the back burner but still there.
The SP jumps on high grade primary ore discoveries, it seems, but the recent discoveries are broad shallow areas right near the plant. And Kin has a partly built plant and robust costings. I think they have written off around $1.7 million ... shifting the already built tanks, maybe, but there is still a substantial investment already there. On top of that it looks like WA is on top of coronavirus and might be able to stay on top with extensive testing.
Conclusion: there is no mystery to increased interest from buyers in Kin.
