Hi madamswer, thanks for your posts on TRS I find them well researched and informative.
I agree that IF new management / Board can post eps ( diluted ) of 45 c CONSISTENTLY then a price above $5.50 is warranted.
I'm not confident of a consistent recovery in earnings to that level.
The trend in earnings appears to be down .
Average eps FY10-FY14 =76.4c and average eps FY15-FY19 =54.2c
( assumes 17.3c for FY19 pre impairment charge )
If future earnings are volatile and 45c is the peak in the earnings cycle and the low point in the cycle is much less than 45c then the TRS is worth less than $5.50.
I've taken eps in FY19 of 17.3c diluted to 13.1c as a warning.
Diluted average eps for FY15-FY19 = 41.0c .
I'm wary of Restructure costs for the next 1 to 2 years .
May need to hold for at least 3 years to see an earnings recovery.
A lot of companies in the discount retail sector in Australia are struggling , it is not company specific.
As you inferred I don't see any future upside worth the risk .
I'm comfortable having sold at a fair value for assets rather than wait for the earnings improvement.
Good luck to yourself and others wiling to hold for the recovery in earnings.
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