Perhaps Westoz have realised most ZEN clients are gold miners / producers. And the price of gold jumping 12% in AUD between 12 months and 6 months ago caused a big spike in ZEN EBITDA.
Then when Westoz see the most current 6 months having another 15% POG rise (ON TOP OF THE PRIOR 12%)... they consider the current environment for Zenith Clients and BOO opportunities very good. Just a thought.
And wondering if we can quantify just the gold opportunity for EXISTING clients: 450 MW x 24% = 108 MW
That, to me, would be the BOTTOM near / mid term signings. Current 232 + 108 = 340 MW near / mid term. Where is that on the Grant Thornton 'paid for 'let us get to $1' analysis'
Maybe Nova or Barrow is in that 108MW opportunity (not gold). But note those two have JUST BEEN UPGRADED. So I think I am correct that 108 MW is on the table - close to signing, assuming POG remains strong.
So a great investment plan would be invest in Zenith to broadly ride the POG, then hedge elsewhere in case POG falls a lot. And even if POG falls, say 10% - 15% Zenith is very moated and shielded with current contracts and historical runs on the board - re how much EBITDA they earn with POG even 15% below where it is today.
Maybe Westoz is thinking like me. They are happy to buy at 99 cents - which is 25% to 30% under fair value (according to Westoz research). Remember Mrs Hoff thinks $1.01 is 20% under fair value (and I have not even shown her gold prices in the last few months). And remember Grant Thornton have the value way over $1.01 - if they chose mid term MW over 300 and use a more reasonable cost of debt at current interest rates.
I wonder who has been privy to the 450 MW at bid / negotiation info. Would that be BUYER PEP? Would that be BUYER APEX? Would that be 100% roll to scrip management/directors. Would that info have been hidden from Grant Thornton? Would that info be hidden from Westoz?
Hmmmmm, makes you wonder, doesnt it?
Perhaps Westoz have realised most ZEN clients are gold miners /...
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