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Mach2money

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29/08/20

16:19

Post #: 46920736
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Originally posted by BavanG: ↑

I've only recently done some research and bought into AVA. Here is my take on the company, in response to your questions:

Revenue Profile
The technology business (FFT and BQT) are project based and not recurring in nature. Though they tend to large and lumpy and things like IMOD give a view of revenue going into the next couple of FYs
Services business (Valuables Logistics) is more repeatable, with contracts carrying a minimum 12-month term.
In terms of revenue growth H2 FY19 to H1 FY20 Revenue has grown +35%, which I don't think is too bad. I'm forecasting 20% for HoH growth for H2 FY20
I'm assuming your comment about new customers refers to the Announcement "Ava Services Division Update". This is related to their Services Business and by my estimates lifts this divisions revenue by 60% from H2 FY20 to H1 FY21

Cost Control
AVA appear to gone on a cost management journey (not driven by COVID). This has meant non-variable costs seem stable and their Gross Margin falls straight through to the bottom line. Based on this I came to a similar conclusion that they had reached equilibrium of growing revenue while maintaining a steady indirect cost base

Valuation
Definitely agree it's undervalued. However, I wouldn't hold my breath for any near term SP movement. Alksab appear to be offloading some stock, though thankfully it's being sold off at a rate that has kept the share price steady. Not sure how much they are looking to offload but given the current volumes (and assuming they want to fully exit) I'd expect a steady SP for at least the next 1-2 months.

I'm planning on starting a thread with my detailed financial forecast for AVA, but I hope this helps. I think you've definitely stumbled across a good one.

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AVA Price at posting: 23.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 13.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $37.64M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
13.0¢	13.0¢	12.5¢	$204.3K	1.610M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	365841	12.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
13.0¢	154992	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	365841	0.125
12	391764	0.120
6	130130	0.115
5	99899	0.110
1	40000	0.105

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.130	154992	3
0.135	163922	3
0.140	295637	7
0.145	79851	2
0.150	247809	5

Last trade - 13.56pm 08/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 13.0¢		Change 0.000 ( 1.89 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
13.0¢	13.0¢	13.0¢	61077
Last updated 12.36pm 08/05/2024 ?

AVA (ASX) Chart

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