All sort of ways to make money. I bought and held for a while a...

All sort of ways to make money. I bought and held for a while a dozen years ago. When I felt that NC was totally mismanaging the opening of the lamps I sold at about $20.00 split adjusted. Since then I have been in and out many times. Last time I bought allot was week of June 6 and sold about 6 weeks later. I was actually planning to sell about now. I will admit i had a few good loses over the last 10 years with Lynas. Overall on an annualized basis I am up nicely. The AR was great. Why did the stock go down? JMO Read between the lines in the CC I think AL was trying to warn people that the Stock was a little pricy and that is why it went down.

JMO Q1 will be worse than Q4. 3 reasons. Q4 they sold over 1 KT from inventory My guess that can not be repeated. Look at REE price chart during Q4. There is a 90 day street price to Lynas revenue lag. So for Q4 use Q3 prices and Q1 use Q4. Logistics problems in Q3 held up some shipments. They spilled into Q4.

Q2 will be good, REE prices during Q1 have been highest in 9 years. Lynas may even RTN to 100%. Take note that AL in Q4 CC said they were slightly over 75% in AR CC she said slightly under. If slightly means very tinny I do not think it would have been mentioned.

JMO In the next 90 days I may buy back in, lower than I sold for two weeks ago. I will watch what happens not only with Lynas but world markets in general. The high PEs the market is now supporting could easily change with a small change in overall markets. If PEs start dropping for the S&P 500 I do not want to be invested in Lynas.

Here is a chart of S&P 500 PEs notice the dramatic rise in PEs over last year. This helped Lynas. Look at long term average PEs about 18. What do you think happens to Lynas SP if PEs just RTN to 25. That would be a 37%drop. Take a look they usually over compensate. What happen if they drop to 10? They do and I might even remortgage my house to buy stocks in general, Lynas would even get a little of it.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

Here are the symbols of some mining manufactures in hi value metals with low PEs
BHP PE of 14.8
RIO 6.5 BHP and RIO sells ore and some low value metals as well.
FMG. AX 4.57
FCX 20
NEM 16

With high PEs
Lynas 38 based on 2021 AR
Tesla 387

I know Tesla is not a miner just put in there to show there are many stocks much higher PEs than Lynas. Think for a moment if PEs drop 40 % or maybe over correct like they did in 2009 or 2000 and drop 75% Do you think all stocks will be hit equally? Stocks like RIO and FMG should not be hit at all they are already below future average PEs. BHP FCX and NEM may see small correction but again with current low PEs not bad. But for an average to drop the highflyers like Lynas and Tesla will have to drop a lot more to bring down average.

What I am I doing to plan for the future. First I have raised cash from 1 or 2 % to 10 % I am buying PUTS in high Flyers Like Tesla, have been for over a year. For example I just bought Tesla Dec 770 puts for tesla. I will sell in October and buy more. I lost money on Tesla Puts a few years ago I was early for last year Have done great with about 9 different puts since then. ALL US citizen are prevented by law from Shorting or trading options on Lynas till the stock price is over USD 5.00 For some amount of time. Sorry cannot remember how long. I think 6 months. Clock resets whenever it drops below 5.00 at any close. Not sure i would buy puts even if I could just want to slop the people that say I am a shorter before it starts.